Exports decreased by 23.7%, and the paper mill returns to the domestic market and the intermediary trap.

Vietnam's paper exports decreased by 23.7% in 2025, according to data from the Vietnam Pulp and Paper Association. Many factories that were used to selling to foreign partners through long-term contracts now have to pivot to the domestic market. This is a reasonable decision, as the domestic paper packaging market is still growing. However, without anything to introduce themselves, the shortest path remains to find intermediaries again. And intermediaries do not retain that margin out of malice; they keep it because it is something they have built, while you have not.

The domestic market does not wait.

Domestic paper packaging is not lacking in opportunities. The Vietnamese paper packaging market is estimated to reach 2.85 billion USD by 2025, with an average growth rate of nearly 10% per year until 2030, according to Mordor Intelligence. The wave of replacing plastic with paper is driving additional demand from major retail chains. WinMart, AEON, and Fujimart have committed to gradually phasing out single-use plastic packaging. Food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical manufacturers are looking for suppliers of safe and customizable paper packaging.

There are orders. There are customers. The issue is who gets chosen and who continues to be left out of the bidding list.

Intermediaries are not the bad guys.

Intermediaries exist because they solve a problem that factories have not been able to solve themselves: making buyers trust that they are dealing with the right people. Intermediaries have relationships, reference profiles, and a verified history of cooperation. They know what buyers need, speak the language of the buyer, and when it comes time to close the deal, they stand as a guarantor of credibility.

Factories only have machinery and production capacity, but they have no way to convey that to purchasing decision-makers. Outdated websites, catalogs lacking technical specifications, no customer case studies, and no clearly presented quality certifications. In B2B bidding rounds, buyers often eliminate suppliers right at the initial research stage, before the first meeting takes place. Intermediaries bypass that step because they have built trust. Factories have not.

A brand is not a logo. A brand is the feeling in the gut of the person opposite when they think of you.

Marty Neumeier, The Brand Gap

The capability profile is the first bidding round.

In B2B, a brand does not need to be recognized by the masses. It only needs to be trusted by a specific group of buyers enough to skip the initial verification step. This group typically includes purchasing departments, production directors, or FMCG business owners who need a stable supply of packaging.

What they need to see is not a beautiful logo. They need to see: what this factory specializes in, how much they can produce, who they have worked for, what standards they meet, and who to contact if there are issues. When that information is presented consistently, clearly, and verifiably, the initial trust step happens much faster. And buyers will proactively reach out instead of letting intermediaries lead the way.

Most paper and carton factories currently do not have that. If they have a website, it is often a 2015 version; catalogs are Word files with images of machinery; capability profiles only exist when customers ask and are hastily prepared in a few hours. This is not a design issue; it is a trust system that has not been built.

Niche positioning: escaping the price race.

When a factory lacks clear positioning, the only thing left to compete on is price. The market has hundreds of carton factories all claiming "best price, fastest delivery," so no one stands out. Intermediaries then become the only ones who can create differentiation in the eyes of buyers, as they package the capabilities of many factories and sell them under a more trusted name.

Niche positioning does not mean rejecting orders outside the scope. It means choosing a specific group of customers, understanding their needs, and building the entire presentation of capabilities around those needs. A factory specializing in FDA-safe food packaging speaks differently than a factory specializing in heavy industrial cartons. A factory serving high-end cosmetics brands has different presentation standards than a factory making e-commerce shipping boxes.

That differentiation does not come from different machinery. It comes from how the factory understands its customers and consistently expresses that understanding externally.

The sustainability story: an untold asset.

Many paper factories are genuinely investing in environmental standards, FSC certification, recycling processes, and reducing wastewater. This is a step in the right direction in response to pressure from retailers and international brands, which increasingly demand more transparency in supply chains regarding environmental impact.

However, most of those investments are not communicated to the market. Certifications are kept in internal records. Green processes are only mentioned when customers ask. Meanwhile, FMCG brands are under pressure from consumers and investors to prove responsible supply chains. Any packaging supplier that can tell that story clearly and reliably will become the preferred choice, as it helps brands solve another problem beyond price.

This is a real opportunity to escape price competition. But it requires the ability to tell a story, not just the ability to produce.